There is no single global housing market in 2026.
The Bank for International Settlements reported that global residential property prices fell 1.2% year over year in real terms in Q1 2026. Prices were down 0.2% across advanced economies and 2.0% across emerging-market economies. But those averages hide extraordinary divergence.
Portugal’s real house prices were up 15%, North Macedonia 13% and Bulgaria 11%, while China and Canada were both down 7% and New Zealand was down 4%.
Real matters here. BIS defines real residential property prices as nominal residential property prices deflated by consumer prices. That helps show whether housing values are rising faster or slower than the general price level.
The global split
| Market | Real house-price change, Q1 2026 y/y | What it tells us |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal | +15% | Extremely strong current momentum |
| North Macedonia | +13% | Extremely strong current momentum |
| Bulgaria | +11% | Very strong current momentum |
| Spain | +10% | Strong growth inside the euro area |
| Australia | +6% | Still rising materially |
| Mexico | +4% | Positive momentum |
| United States | -2% | Cooling |
| United Kingdom | -2% | Cooling |
| New Zealand | -4% | Clear contraction |
| Canada | -7% | Sharp contraction |
| China | -7% | Sharp contraction |
BIS also gives us something more useful than a single quarterly snapshot: the change since Q4 2019, just before the pandemic-era housing cycle. Since then, real prices are up 105% in Türkiye, 23% in Australia, 22% in Mexico and 18% in the United States. China is 22% below its Q4 2019 level, Canada 9% below and Indonesia 8% below.
The Better Places “Legacy + Momentum” test
Instead of asking whether prices are simply rising or falling, a prospective buyer can look at two dimensions:
Legacy: How much did the market already rise or fall since Q4 2019?
Momentum: What are real prices doing now?
| Market | Since Q4 2019 | Q1 2026 y/y | Better Places reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | +23% | +6% | Still hot after a large run-up |
| Mexico | +22% | +4% | Still positive after a large run-up |
| United States | +18% | -2% | Cooling after a run-up |
| Türkiye | +105% | -3% | Cooling after an extraordinary run-up |
| Canada | -9% | -7% | Deeper reset |
| China | -22% | -7% | Long reset still continuing |
| Indonesia | -8% | -3% | Weak legacy plus weak momentum |
This does not predict what happens next. It tells a mover what question to ask next.
If a market is still hot after a large run-up
Australia is the clearest example in this selected group. Real prices are already 23% above Q4 2019 levels and were still rising 6% year over year in Q1 2026.
For someone relocating there, that does not automatically mean “do not buy.” It means the cost of buying immediately deserves extra scrutiny.
A rent-first period may have value while the household learns which city, suburb and commute actually suit it. That is not a forecast that prices will fall; it is a way of reducing the cost of making the wrong location decision while buying into strong momentum.
Readers considering Australia can continue with our Australia mortgage-pressure comparison.
If a market is cooling after a large run-up
The United States illustrates a different situation.
Real house prices remain roughly 18% above their Q4 2019 level, but current real growth was -2% year over year in Q1 2026.
That creates a better question than “Are U.S. homes getting cheaper?” A buyer should ask whether the cooling has actually improved the monthly ownership equation once mortgage rates, local taxes, insurance and income are included.
Falling real prices alone do not guarantee better affordability.
If a market is in a deeper reset
Canada and China show why a falling market is not automatically a bargain.
Canada’s real prices are about 9% below Q4 2019 and fell another 7% year over year in Q1 2026. China is about 22% below its Q4 2019 level and also recorded a 7% annual decline.
The correct conclusion is not “buy because prices are down.” The correct conclusion is:
Investigate why prices are down, what local supply and demand look like, whether income opportunities are strong, and whether the specific city follows the national pattern.
Country data is the first gate, not the final decision
A national index cannot tell someone whether a two-bedroom apartment in Lisbon, Melbourne or Toronto is affordable to them.
Country-level momentum is useful for deciding where to investigate. The final decision still requires local rent, purchase price, financing, tax, transport and household-income data.
That is the philosophy behind the Better Places Calculator and our Lisbon vs Valencia portable-income comparison.
The Better Places takeaway
The headline “global house prices are falling” is technically true — and practically inadequate.
A better relocation question is:
Is the market I am entering still accelerating after a major run-up, cooling after one, or already in a deeper reset?
That answer cannot tell you whether to buy. It can tell you what risk you should investigate before you buy.
Official sources
Photo: Tom Rumble / Unsplash. Better Places calculations and classifications are planning tools, not forecasts or financial advice.
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